by kusanagi
There is a "simple" way to estimate the best upgrade available for your ships, that I find more useful than calculating the exact probability to hit or win. Let me explain it here, using as example the base ships against ancients.It might be obvious for some people, but I needed some time to realize this, and I guess it could be helpful for other players too.
If you use terran base Cruisers against Ancients, you can easely compare the different available upgrades for the void ship part:
(if you do not take into acount the initiative for now)
1) Ion cannon: One extra cannon will double the chances of hits caused by your ship. I'll name this "x2 to the power of your ship".
2) Hull: the fist Hull placed by default in your ship doubles the hits needed to destroy your ship (from 1 ro 2). It is a "x2 to the power of your ship".
However, you will need 2 extra hulls (1 improved hull) to double again the hits needed to destroy the ship (from 2 to 4).
With one extra single Hull, it would require 3 hits instead of the default 2, so it'd be a "x1,5 to the power of youe ship".
3) +1 Electron Computer: the first Computer placed by default in your ship allows to hit with 5,6 instead of 6, so you will hit twice as often. It is again a "x2 to the power".
If you place an extra +2 Positron Computer, it will allow to hit with 3,4,5,6, twice chances than the base set (hit with 5,6), and so a "x2 power".
However, a +1 Electron Computer would allow to hit with 4,5,6: those are 3 chances instead of 2, so it is a "x1,5 power" upgrade.
4) -1 Shield: the Ancients will hit you with 5,6, but it will hit only with 6 if you place a shield, half as often, so it'd also be a "x2 power" upgrade.
Note that this way to calculate the value of an upgrade must take into acount the enemy ships. For example, if the enemy have plasma cannon (orange x2 damage), 1 single hull has no effect in the final result, you'd need 1 improved hull (2 hps) to double the hits resisted by your ship. If the enemy has Antimatter Cannon (red x4 damage), 3 hulls have no effect, you would need 4 hulls (2 improved hulls) to double your power.
In the same way, if your enemy has -2 phase shields, your first +3 computer would double your chances to hit (from 6 to 5,6). While your 2nd Computer +3 will increase your chances to 2,3,4,5,6. In total would be x5 the power of the ship.
This method is not completely accurate because it does not take into acount the initiative, but it will give you an idea of when it is a good option to place another cannon, or another computer, shield, etc.
When you have the initiative, the Cannons and Computers are better, to take advantage of this first shoot.
When you lose the initiative, the Hulls and Shields are better, to give the ship more chances to survive the first shot and be able to take part in the combat.
In the example, if you use Cruisers against Ancients (2 cannons, 1 hull, +1 computer, 2 initiative), all these upgrades allow you to double the power of your Cruiser:
- Positron Computer +2. It also gives you the initiative so it is the best one.
- Phase shield -1
- Improved hull
- Extra Ion cannon
- Plasma Cannon instead of the default Ion cannon (keeping same energy)
I find this method useful to estimate the best upgrades available for the current battle, but it could also be used to calculate the final battle odds in some cases (I'll try to explain in next post).
Please, let me know if some part of the explanation is hard to understand, or too obvious...
Thanks to Vanish for the web combat simulator that allowed me to understand better the battle mechanics:
http://boardgamegeek.com/thread/758508/web-accessible-combat...