by Quirky1
So I haven't seen what kind of rules of thumbs people use for calculating odds on the fly before a battle or when they are adding that last ship to one of two fairly even combats.I go by this rather simple formula:
Number of ships x number of cannons x ToHIt+1 x HitsTaken
Basis for ship design is that 3 cannons and no computer is equal to 1 cannon and two +1 computers. But 2 cannons and one +1 computer is better than both. The reason is that 3x1 and 1x3 are equal, but 2x2 are one more. In this trivial example every ship has an built in 1 in 6 chance to hit which gives us the first example 3 weapon dice and 1 in 6 chance to hit, 3x1 = 3. In the second example we have a total of 3 in 6 chance to hit, but only have one weapon die and that also gives us 1x3 = 3.
This is not exact of course. :-) But for a rule of thumb, load up on one more weapon part than computer bonuses.
Next step is to check out the shield situation on the enemy. Here one must remeber that if the enemy has two ship designs with different shielding the better shielded ship will get all the 6s and the easier to hit ship the bad to hit die, so it will not be as hard to hit them as one would expect. But we ignore that for now.
The better shields an enemy have, the more computers you should have to reach the sweet spot of 2x2 in the above example.
Next step is to compare number of hits it will take to kill you. If the enemy has mostly plasma weapons and your ship has 3 HP then you take 2 hits to kill, that is you take your points times 2. If you double your survival you will fire twice as many shots and be twice as effective on average.
You add the score of all your ships and then compare it to the enemy fleet score (this is where your weapon types comes in and your shields, they make the enemy score lower.)
A simple example:
3 interceptors with +1 computers and Ion Cannons vs 2 ancients.
Interceptors:
3 x 1 (IC) x 2 (ToHit on 2 in 6) x 1 (can take one hit only) = 6 power.
Ancients:
2 x 2 (IC) x 2 (ToHIt) x 2 (can take an extra hit) = 16.
In short, that is a loosing fight.
What can we do to make it work?
We can begin by checking differnt upgrades:
-1 shield instead of computer:
Interceptors: 3 x 1 x 1 x 1 = 3
Ancients: 2 x 2 x 1 x 2 = 8
The same odds.
+2 computer instead of +1:
Interceptors: 3 x 1 x 3 x 1 = 9 a 50% increase in power, seems correct.
IH instead of computer:
Interceptor: 3 x 1 x 1 x 3 = 9 a 50% increase as well.
Two Ion Cannons and no computer:
Interceptors: 3 x 2 x 1 x1 = 6 Same as before.
Plasma Cannon and a +1 computer:
Changes Ancients to 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 = 8 Same as shields, but no need to lower our own score since we have the power.
Plasma cannon and an IH:
Interceptor: 3 x 1 x 1 x 3 = 9
Ancients: 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 = 8
So the best upgrades against ancients (without increasing the source) seems to be:
Plasma cannons and IH. No suprise there.
When a fight is as close as the one above, initiative comes in. Having initiative is an advantage that is greatest in quick battles:
Example:
Two designs with the following values:
1 (ship) x (1 cannon) x 5 (ToHit) x 1 (hits it can take) = 5
against
1 (ship) x (1 cannon) x 1 (ToHit) x 5 (hits) = 5
If two ships of the first design met, it would be increadibly important to win the initiative, since the fight will most likely only be one round long.
The second ship type is as powerfull but initiative is of lesser importance since the fight will most likely be 30 rounds long
Mixing glass cannon ships with empty Hulks of hull, is not a good idea since the enemy will target the glass cannons first. Try to keep them about equal so that no ship is an extra tempting target.
So back to initiative. If the power is close and the fight will be short and bloody, initiative can be all important, but usually it is just a tie breaker.
The same goes for ship size. If one side only has one ship that is a bigg advantage since that side will fire all weapons to the end. While a bunch of interceptors will gradually decline in fire power as they get decimated in round after round in a close fight.
Again, something to take into consideration when 4 interceptors goes after a Dreadnaught.
When it comes to real odds I usually see it like this:
If I have 2:1 in power I will most likely win more often than 2:1, probably closer to 1:3 in casualties and wins. If I have 4:1 in power it will most likely be 1:10 in casualties and win rate.
If I have X:1 it will be 1+2+3+4..+x : 1 in casualties.
Overkill keeps your fleet going.
So a final example:
8 interceptors IC and 3HP. 2 Dreadnaughts 2IC, +1, 7HP.
Vs.
4 cruisers 2PM, +2 and 2HP.
8x1x1x2=16 2x2x2x4=16 Tot. 32 power.
4x2x3x2=48 Tot. 48.
My guess would be that the cruisers win, but take heavy casualties since they only have about 3:2 odds.
Initiative will most likely not come into effect since the first player don't have glass cannons, but it might save a cruiser from death if the cruisers have initiative.
Number wise both sides have several ships so that will not be a problem. The Dreadnaughts are not an extra juicy targets either since they have as good defense as the smaller ship compared to their fire power.
Another way of doing this would be to calculate turns it should take to kill the enemy.
8 interceptors that do 1 damage every six rounds and two dreads that do 4 damage every 6 rounds.
They need to do 8 damage and that will take them about 4 rounds.
The 4 cruisers do about 12 damage every 6 rounds.
They need to do 38 damage and that will take them almost 5 rounds.
This method makes it even closer and an advantage to the first fleet. And here initiative would be important as well as targeting, Dreads or interceptors.
Do you guys have any other rules of thumbs?
I am hoping there is something like:
Interceptors 1 pnt
Cruisers 2 pnt
Starbases 3 pnt
Dreads 4 pnt
+50% for every extra tech that has been upgraded properly.
If equal score initiative should win out.